DENPASAR, DEWATA.NEWS – Rising global geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, are beginning to raise concerns over potential economic impacts on Bali, especially in the tourism sector.
Economist and tourism observer Trisno Nugroho said Bali’s economy is highly sensitive to changes in global energy prices, including aviation fuel and transportation costs.
“Bali depends heavily on mobility and connectivity. If energy prices rise, airfares may increase, operational costs for hotels and transport will go up, and tourists may reduce their spending,” he said in Denpasar on Monday (April 6).
Data from Indonesia’s Central Statistics Agency (BPS) shows that international tourist arrivals to Bali reached 502,205 in January 2026, a decrease of 12.30 percent compared to December 2025, which recorded 572,668 arrivals.
Hotel occupancy rates also declined, with star-rated hotels recording 56.67 percent occupancy in January 2026, down from 60.88 percent in December 2025 and 60.28 percent in January 2025.
According to Nugroho, prolonged energy price pressure could affect Bali through several channels. These include higher airfare costs, reduced tourist spending, shorter stays, and increased operational expenses for hotels, restaurants, transport services, and small businesses.
He also warned of potential impacts on regional finances if tourism activity weakens, as well as rising inflation affecting local communities.
Inflation in Bali has already shown an upward trend, increasing from 2.58 percent in January 2026 to 3.89 percent in February 2026. In Denpasar, inflation reached 4.33 percent.
“This indicates that price pressures are starting to appear. If global energy prices continue to rise, the impact could expand to living costs and the competitiveness of Bali’s tourism,” he added.
Despite these concerns, Nugroho noted that the situation remains at an early warning stage and has not yet caused a direct slowdown in Bali’s economy.
Separately, Bali Tourism Board (BTB) Chairman I.B. Agung Partha Adnyana said global conflicts tend to influence travel decisions through perception rather than actual conditions in Bali.
“Global conflicts can affect tourist arrivals, not because Bali is unsafe, but due to perceived risks and travel policies in tourists’ home countries,” he said.
He explained that markets such as Europe, Australia, Japan, South Korea, and North America are particularly responsive to geopolitical developments, often adjusting travel plans based on advisories and risk assessments.
Short-term delays or itinerary changes are more common than full cancellations, as many travelers prefer to reschedule rather than cancel trips entirely.
Adnyana also noted that modern travelers are more sensitive to global issues and increasingly prioritize flexibility, travel insurance, and cancellation policies.
Changes in global conditions may also affect flight routes, including potential airspace restrictions or longer travel times, which could reduce seat capacity and increase ticket prices, particularly for long-haul flights to Bali.
“Bali remains safe and open for international travelers. The global challenges are more related to perception and connectivity, not the condition of the destination itself,” he said.