DENPASAR, DEWATA.NEWS – Indonesia’s meteorology agency has clarified growing public concern over a potential megathrust earthquake affecting Bali, emphasizing that current information is part of risk mitigation efforts, not a prediction of when such an event will occur.
Bali is considered one of the regions with potential exposure to megathrust activity due to its location along the Pacific Ring of Fire, a tectonically active zone known for frequent earthquakes and volcanic activity. Recent discussions have referenced the possibility of a large-scale earthquake reaching up to magnitude 9.0, prompting public attention.
According to the Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG), these figures are based on scientific assessments of maximum potential energy release, not forecasts of imminent events.
Yogha Mahardika, a junior meteorology and geophysics observer at BMKG Regional Office III in Denpasar, explained that Bali is particularly influenced by the Sumba megathrust segment.
“Based on the 2024 National Earthquake Study Center report, Bali is among areas potentially affected by megathrust activity from the Sumba segment. However, this is not a prediction, but part of mitigation education to encourage preparedness,” he said on Saturday (April 18).
Indonesia’s updated 2024 Earthquake Source and Hazard Map identifies 14 megathrust zones across the country, an increase from 13 zones recorded in 2017. Several of these zones are capable of generating major earthquakes, including the Java segment with a potential magnitude of up to 9.1, and the Enggano and Mentawai-Pagai segments with estimated magnitudes of up to 8.9.
The Sumba segment, located relatively close to Bali, is also assessed to have the potential to generate earthquakes of up to magnitude 8.9.
BMKG also highlighted two areas classified as “seismic gaps,” where significant energy may have accumulated due to long periods without major earthquakes. These include the Sunda Strait megathrust, which last experienced a major event in 1757, and the Mentawai-Siberut segment, last recorded in 1797.
While such conditions indicate the possibility of future seismic activity, BMKG stressed that no existing technology can accurately predict the timing of earthquakes.
Authorities are advising residents, tourists, and expatriates in Bali to remain calm while improving their level of preparedness. This includes understanding evacuation procedures, identifying safe routes, and relying on official updates from BMKG.